Cleveland Weather: White Christmas?

It is the number one question of the week: Will we have a white Christmas?

As great as forecasting skill CAN be, it is still too early to tell. But I would say we have a 60-40 shot that it will be white ... just HOW white is the question.

You see, we have several strong storm systems expected to come through the Great Lakes region in the coming days.

The first will sweep into the area tomorrow morning, which may bring a mix of rain and snow that will be more of an inconvenience than anything (no accumulation).

The second will arrive Thursday and is considerably stronger than the Tuesday storm. As of now, the center of the storm is expected to track over Chicago. This means Thursday's temperatures will soar into the 50s as rain spreads over the area. That rain will change over to snow Thursday night and snow will still be in the forecast for much of the area on Friday.

If we get a snow accumulations Friday (which looks likely), will that snow make it through the weekend into the Christmas holiday?

This is where things get complicated.

One set of forecast models keep us cool and dry, so any snow that we have on the ground will be partially melting.

The other set of forecast models plunges temperatures for the weekend and into Christmas, which would not only let the Friday snow stick around, but likely ADD snow (especially in the snowbelts).

For now, I am going to go with a middle-of-the-road kind of forecast for the weekend and into Christmas Day.

My hunch is that the colder air will win out, which will mean a white Christmas, but certainly there will be changes to the forecast before the holiday arrives.

Fingers crossed!!!

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with rain, which may mix with snow closer to dawn. Mid 30s Winds: N 5-10 mph.

Tuesday: Morning light rain/snow mix or possibly snow showers, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Low 40s Winds: SE 3-7 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Warmer. Mid/upper 40s

Thursday: Mostly cloudy start, then windy and rainy. Mild. Low/mid 50s

Friday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, colder and windy. Mid 30s

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. Mid 30s